Sars-Cov-2 stuff

[andrew Ivimey]

Most viral mutations get weaker generationally. Ain't always so though. What you say, Simon, is reasonable.

I'd guess, if we're lucky, covid will be like 'flu' and we'll be able to catch up and cope with it.

But what will we, the human race, learn from it?
Can we change, adapt or just shrug our shoulders?

All very interesting!

[simon]

What you say, Simon, is reasonable.

Damn!

Can we change, adapt or just shrug our shoulders?

If I was a betting man I know which I'd put my money on.

[pre65]

And as it seems a critical mass of people aren't able to do what's needed I wonder if it might be next spring before we start to see the real picture?

If those "critical mass" keep defying the lockdown procedures how much longer will ordinary (but compliant) men and women tolerate being cooped up ?

Should the armed forces be used to help out ?

[Cressy Snr]

I really don’t understand this nonsense they are talking about the vaccines turning people into carriers. So fecking what!
If everybody is vacccinated as they damned well should be then there should be no problem.

I’m vaccinated, somebody else who is vaccinated carries the disease to me, I don’t get it because I’m vaccinated. I carry the disease to someone else, they are vaccinated so they don’t get the disease. Someone not vaccinated carries the disease to me, I don’t get it because I’m vaccinated.
At some point once everybody has been done, there is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk decided upon by the powers that be otherwise we’ll be locked up forever with all our civil liberties gone.

[simon]

Gulp.

Well, it could be argued we're in this position not because of people not obeying this lockdown but because of what happened back in the late summer. The experts warned of the second wave right back at the beginning of the first.

But eye tests in Barnard Castle were fine, and that was the beginning. Then eat out to help out. Too many people thought it was over when the experts were warning against it. But a lot of the country had a low infection rate. And Leicester was just Leicester right?

Then we got to flu season and a rise in infections. But too many people had forgotten what this was about. And if you're young, healthy, don't know anyone who's died of it, and out of work...

I'm just glad I can work from home and keep myself to myself.

[simon]

I really don’t understand this nonsense they are talking about the vaccines turning people into carriers. So fecking what!
If everybody is vacccinated as they damned well should be then there should be no problem.

I’m vaccinated, somebody else who is vaccinated carries the disease to me, I don’t get it because I’m vaccinated. I carry the disease to someone else, they are vaccinated so they don’t get the disease. Someone not vaccinated carries the disease to me, I don’t get it because I’m vaccinated.
At some point once everybody has been done, there is going to have to be an acceptable level of risk decided upon by the powers that be otherwise we’ll be locked up forever with all our civil liberties gone.

Well you might be the 1 in 10 that gets it. You might be fine, if not intensive care should have plenty of capacity.

Life is based on risk, either crossing the road or living with Covid. Everyone has their own view on acceptable risk. Someone currently shielding might still be very cautious even after the vaccine?

[Cressy Snr]

Well yes Simon, but isn’t the idea behind the vaccine that if you are vaccinated and do unfortunately catch it as one of the 1 in 10 then you don’t get seriously ill with it, ie you don’t end up in the ICU. I’m not suggesting having the jab and going out partying and accept that there will be a very long period before we get back to anything resembling normal life, but with this nonsense they are slowly undermining everyone’s morale and frankly it is not helpful.

We cant go on like this forever. As our Ant says, the mental health toll will be astronomical and all this yeah but no but about the jab coming from the government and the medics is becoming frankly ridiculous. This smacks of punishing the whole class because one or two can’t behave. They are scaring decent people half to death. What they need to do whilst the vaccination programme is running, is get tough on the refuseniks and the rule breakers and kick some arse and take down names.

[Nick]

Most viral mutations get weaker generationally. Ain't always so though.

But from what I have read that’s normally the case, if reducing the effect increases the rate at which the virus is spread. That's true in the case of diseases that are more lethal, but in the case of sars-colv-2 death comes after the virus has moved on, so there is no evolutionary pressure on the virus to reduce its effect.

I really don’t understand this nonsense they are talking about the vaccines turning people into carriers.

Not sure anyone is suggesting anything is being turned into anything, but you have to catch the virus before your immune system can defeat it, with or without the vaccine. Once you have caught the vaccine but before its defeated by the immune system it may well be that you can spread it. No difference As far as I can see from now.

"but you have to catch the virus before your immune system can defeat it," That by the way is why you cant achieve herd immunity without a vaccine, as the number of people who have not had it reduces, there are less suitable hosts, so you never reach the point where its reduced to zero.

At some point once everybody has been done

But that’s the problem, not everyone can be vaccinated, for a whole list of reasons, the idea of herd immunity attained through the use of vaccines is it prevents the spread of the disease so protects those that can not be protected by the vaccine.

but isn’t the idea behind the vaccine that if you are vaccinated and do unfortunately catch it as one of the 1 in 10 then you don’t get seriously ill with it, ie you don’t end up in the ICU.

Yes, but if the virus is widespread even though few are being seriously damaged then the more likely the virus is to mutate into a variant that the vaccine doesn’t protect from.

What they need to do is get tough on the refuseniks

Just be careful you are not just being pointed at another group to blame. After all its getting harder to blame the EU and immigrants for all our woes. Not everyone can work from home.

[Cressy Snr]

So again we are in a circular argument and can never therefore come out of restrictions. That is simply not a viable option.
Therefore the vaccine will need to be tweaked every year the same as the flu jab is. Covid 19 is not going away and we are going to have to deal with that one way or another.

[Nick]

So again we are in a circular argument and can never therefore come out of restrictions. That is simply not a viable option.
Therefore the vaccine will need to be tweaked every year the same as the flu jab is. Covid 19 is not going away and we are going to have to deal with that one way or another.

Yes, that seems likely, and is what most of the scientific community seems to have been saying for some time now, but first the rate of inflection needs to be brought down across the world, if only to reduce the chance of a mutation that is much worst.

[Cressy Snr]

I agree that a global effort is needed against this thing and I hope for some cooperation.

[simon]

Indeed Steve, there's not much good news. Everyone has a different tolerance, and driver, for their adherence to doing the right thing. Just ask Dominic Cummins or Boris Johnson. I've felt like we're pretty doomed to this going on endlessly for the last 6 months.

[Scottmoose]

I occasionally do, but I think it's more a case of ennui than reality.

Much of the problem regarding compliance is less that large numbers break rules (and appreciating that some do), but because of lack of regulation clarity and overall presentation. The current mob in government have messed up most things royally, but the one thing they are very good at is the spreading of misinformation and shifting blame. Thus, they announce that the spread has been due to failure of individuals to comply rather than the actual cause which are repeated failures of monumental proportions at a strategic level.

Be that as it may -there doesn't appear to be any confirmation yet about whether somebody who has been vaccinated can spread the disease. Possible, although it would probably be relatively brief as the immune system is already fighting (i.e. killing) the virus in your body, so presumably the viral load itself will likely be reduced compared to somebody who has not been vaccinated. And when you get to a critical mass where much of the country is vaccinated, it becomes inherently harder for it to spead anyway, since the vast proportion of those interacting are basically immune. Herd immunity, via medical intervention. They'll likely have to adapt the vaccine yearly; I've been wondering if it could be combined with the annual 'flu jab. Possible; depends on if there are any interactions. Best left to people who know what they're doing.

Re effectiveness, it looks like the percentages depend on the frame of reference. Take the new single-shot vaccine currently in final trials. They note an average 66% effectiveness, but that doesn't mean 34% are going into ICU. Thus far from the reports I've seen nobody who has received that shot has either died, or required hospital treatment for Covid-19 (any varient to date). It just means that 66% had no symptoms, and 34% had mild symptoms that required no specialist medical treatment. I don't know how the percentages apply to the other vaccines, but I would assume (and speaking under correction) they're operating on a similar[ish] basis. Nothing is perfect, but even if it doesn't prevent you from developing symptoms, most seem to prevent severe illness. Which is good -obviously none of us much relish the idea of feeling lousy for a few days, but that's a whole lot better than ending up in ICU.

[andrew Ivimey]

Yep again, very imho, but I agree.

Interestingly the latest guest at South Wing is Captain Sir Tom. He came in as having pneumonia and tested positive so he is pretty ill (given his age alone). Hoorah though for the Cap'n, says I. He is not in ICU. Strange place at the best of times, now it is scienceefictiony.

Visitors are not welcome (of course) but...fingers crossed and all the best wishes for everyone.

I'm testing and repairing things today - no patients, but one day.... - only one member of staff off now so things are non the up. Anna is testing a baby who is an emergency slot so Addenbrookes can take over with their cochlea implant programme. All very interesting and I can look forward to stepping down from gainful employment and maybe just mooch about the Shire and see a few for in Care Homes like in the good old days.

[pre65]

Nothing is perfect, but even if it doesn't prevent you from developing symptoms, most seem to prevent severe illness. Which is good -obviously none of us much relish the idea of feeling lousy for a few days, but that's a whole lot better than ending up in ICU.

Or dead.